Henrik Lundqvist doomsday scenario (Trending Topics)

Henrik Lundqvist took a stick in the eye on Wednesday night, stayed in the game, gave up a goal immediately, and left. He was evaluated by an eye specialist and the Rangers called up another goalie the day after. 

This is one of those doomsday scenarios you often hear about in sports but rarely see: The loss of a single player effectively dooming a team to a quick and likely painful death. Because hockey is hockey, and because their opponents are likewise potentially facing more games without their intended starting goalie, the Rangers have the potential to win a game or maybe (maaaaaaaaybe) two, but no one is deluded on this point. The Rangers sans Lundqvist are probably one of the worst teams in the entire NHL, and as such will assuredly be bounced from the playoffs posthaste by a deeper, better division rival.

The demonstrable value Lundqvist provides to the Rangers at this point does not need to be stated. That anyone would vote for literally any goaltender in the league for the Vezina is ludicrous to the point of absurdity, and frankly he should be racking up plenty of Hart consideration as well.

Lundqvist faced the most shots in the league this season and posted a .920 save percentage in all situations. If he had dropped the five points necessary to get down to league average, he would have allowed 165 goals, nine more than he actually conceded. Nine goals probably costs the Rangers three or so points in the standings, which isn't exactly ruinous in terms of missing or making the playoffs, but if you really break it down, you see how valuable he was to the Rangers in most situations.

Now, as to the three situations in which he actively cost the Rangers goals, you have to say those are more systems-dependent than 5-on-5 play, which is widely regarded as the best way to evaluate goaltender quality. The idea that he saved them 18-plus goals at 5-on-5 is absolutely incredible, especially given the quality of player in front of him on a nightly basis and the volume of shots he faced.

Moreover, it's important to evaluate Lundqvist in the context of playoff performances. Again, no one was giving the Rangers much of a chance to advance past the Penguins regardless of Lundqvist's health, but many were at least willing to concede that the future Hall of Famer would at least steal them a game or two (or even three). Such is the difference he can make.

We have very little data on what the Rangers look like in the postseason without Lundqvist's play supporting them. Antti Raanta's 39.8 minutes in relief on Wednesday was the first time someone not-Lundqvist was in net for New York since 2013-14, and even then, Cam Talbot was on in relief for two separate games. Altogether, of the Rangers' more than 6,224 minutes in the playoffs since 2007-08, Lundqvist has played all but 126 or so. That's just 2 percent outstanding to Raanta, Talbot, and Stephen Valiquette.

Since the 2007-08 postseason, Lundqvist's play has the Rangers carrying a .934 save percentage at 5-on-5, well above the league average during that time. Meanwhile, the Rangers themselves haven't exactly made things easy on him, with a team shooting percentage of 7.1 percent (or, if you prefer, a save percentage-against of .929 if he weren't .934 they'd be losing a hell of a lot more games. But specifically because he's world-class, they've found themselves advancing deep into postseason after postseason in recent years, despite the continual loss of efficacy for the roster in front of him.

With increasing frequency, the Rangers are making goalies who are decidedly not as good as Lundqvist look more or less like Lundqvist. And while you can certainly say that some of this could be a product of luck, one can also examine talent level and everything else and say, “Hmm, if it weren't for the fact that Lundqvist is back there, this team would get bombed out in the first round almost every year, if they made it at all.”

Over nearly 100 playoff games (and counting) in nine postseasons the Rangers are at just 48.6 percent in terms of shots-for at 5-on-5. And yet, despite the disparity in volume and the fact that their shooting success has been scattered at best, they're a 50.5 percent goals-for team. 

And just to be clear, the gap between the Rangers and their opponents in terms of shot generation is only likely to get wider, because the team is obviously getting older, slower, and worse. Not to harp on poor, overmatched Dan Girardi, but the guy is drawing Crosby-coverage duty in this postseason for want of any better options and ... well, you all saw how that worked in Game 1, Lundqvist or not.

The update that came on Thursday afternoon was that Lundqvist's eye injury wasn't all that serious. That might be gamesmanship on the part of Alain Vigneault, and it might be a legitimate diagnosis. But even if he's not 100 percent, the Rangers are so ineffective these days that he might as well just sit out.

It's difficult to put into words just how valuable Lundqvist is here, and how thin the margins of victory tend to be even given his overwhelming value. While no one underrates his talent level, the Rangers' ability to go anywhere without him almost has to be overrated, simply because there have to be some people out there who think this team's postseason success over the last few years is attributable to anyone besides Lundqvist, by and large.

Again, the idea that Lundqvist has an almost unparalleled impact on his team in terms of winning and losing is obvious to any observer. But this data suggests that the only way the Rangers would ever advance in the playoffs is by getting world-class performances in net. They can't score reliably, and they can't outshoot their opponents, and that's a recipe for disaster. On top of all that, you can also mix in the anxiety that ought to come with the fact that Lundqvist recently celebrated his 34th birthday, and therefore probably can't be relied upon to stay quite so healthy as he has (dude's a straight-up workhorse) or perform to the same level as he's delivered for years. Goalies, even the absolute very best of them, can't play forever.

These issues should be enough to engender an existential crisis for the franchise as a whole, because the Rangers without Lundqvist are probably closer to the bottom-five than even a first-round exit.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

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