Huge If True: Pavel Datsyuk to KHL and other player transfer rumors

 [HUGE IF TRUE breaks down the plausibility of the week's biggest rumor.]

The Rumor

This is the time of year when you start to hear about guys playing overseas who might want to ply their trade in North America next season.

All the European leagues start to wrap up their season around this time of year so that everyone can get good and ready for the World Championships, which Europe cares about far more than we do. (Likely because their league seasons end earlier than ours.)

Anyway, the KHL in particular is always a great source of these rumors, because for some reason it considers itself on par with the NHL, and there's always this weird tension for European players — particularly Russians for obvious reasons — about, “Would they prefer to play there or here?”

For example, Ilya Kovalchuk left in what was more or less (the end of) the prime of his career, because he wanted to make a ton of money tax-free. And he did that and he was a really good KHL player for a long time. You'll recall that a few months ago, rumors started cropping up that he was unhappy with his role on his current KHL team and would entertain a return to the U.S. for next season, or something. Doesn't seem like it's going to happen now, nor does it seem as though he's going to the Chinese KHL expansion team, but we all had a fun time talking about it and so on for a little while. His future landing spot is, however, still up in the air.

Now, though, it appears as though some are preparing for one of the NHL's best-loved elder statesmen to possibly shuffle off back to Russia when this season ends. Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday that Pavel Datsyuk would bail out of the final year of his contract with the Red Wings, and move to the KHL next season.

But just in case you were worried that we'd be short a Russian guy for next season, fear not. Because the Leafs might sign defenseman Nikita Zaitsev. And apparently our old friend Alex Radulov is kicking the tires for his third North American tour.

And heck, even Geoff Platt, an American who has played in European leagues for years and now somewhat inexplicably represents Belarus internationally, is also looking to make the jump. It's gonna be a fun summer, gang.

Who's Going Where?

Okay so let's start with the big one here, and that's Datsyuk jumping to the KHL. In breaking the news, Friedman said cited more than a few sources, and said that the decision was a family-reasons type of thing. Which is fair enough.

However, whether this actually happens seems very much up in the air. Ken Holland, for example, told the Detroit Free Press that he's not all that concerned with the rumor, saying, “"Pav has a year to go. I hear lots of rumors. There were rumors last summer, there were rumors the summer before. There was rumors about Nick Lidstrom for about three years. It's all rumors. He's got a year to go on his contract. I'm going to sit down with all our players at the end of the year, one by one, and talk to them all. Obviously, I'll sit down with Pav."

More fuel for the “He's Staying!” fire: Datsyuk's agent wouldn't confirm or deny to the Freep whether his client was going to leave the NHL this season, but did say that Datsyuk is launching a hockey skills development camp in Detroit this summer. Of course, he's had one in Russia for a decade, so that might not mean anything.

As for the man himself, well, he certainly didn't deny the rumors.

"It's hard to say. Never know what going to happen" - Pavel Datsyuk on future.

— Helene St. James (@HeleneStJames) April 4, 2016

Now let's move on to Radulov. First of all, his team is still playing in Gagarin Cup playoffs, so the rumors surrounding him have been dismissed by some both here and in Russia as a form of counterintelligence; rumors put out by opponents to disquiet his SKA club as it moves forward.

However, Friedman has it that his agents are at least floating the idea to NHL clubs to see how that goes over, noting, “Everyone assumes Colorado, but there are more teams.” (The idea of Radulov playing for Patrick Roy is endlessly funny to me.)

Of course, he may or may not be under contract with his KHL team for next season anyway. When last the North American hockey world checked in on this in late January, reports out of Russia were that he had signed an extension, but his agent denied those, saying negotiations were still ongoing. Maybe just more misinformation, one way or another. Who can tell?

The first time I heard the latest Radulov rumor, it wasn't the Avs who were interested, but the Maple Leafs, who are also allegedly interested in the above-mentioned Zatisev, Radulov's teammate. The Zaitsev-to-Toronto rumor has been around since at least January, but Radulov seems to be a relatively recent addition to that.

As for Platt, who was mentioned by Friedman in 30 Thoughts, well, you can see why he'd want to test the waters. He's Canadian, he's having a great season in terms of point production, and he's now on the wrong side of 30. This year, he scored 21-14-35 in 55 games for CSKA, and then added 6-3-9 in nine games in the postseason. He may attract some interest.

The Implications

Datsyuk possibly going to Russia is a big deal for Detroit, not only because they lose a huge driver of success and a future Hall of Famer, but also because they'd be stuck with his cap hit, in theory. The likelihood is that they would find some low-spending team to take on that dead-weight contract a la Chris Pronger in Arizona or Marc Savard in Florida would probably be pretty high. So that's not a concern, really. The on-ice problem is the big one here, and I don't know how you begin to address it if you're Detroit.

Cross that bridge when you come to it, one supposes, but you have to think Holland knows more than he's letting on, and is already working on a contingency plan. Whether that works is another matter entirely.

Where Radulov is concerned, though, I don't see it making that big of a difference to anyone one way or another. Yes, he was pretty good last time he was in the NHL, but that was quite a while now. He'll be 30 on July 5, and while he can score a bunch against KHL competition, that doesn't often translate in the NHL (unless you get put on a line with Patrick Kane ha ha ha). Would I take a flyer on him? Sure I would. Would I expect him to be any sort of difference-maker? Not particularly. At this point, his ceiling is probably “decent second-liner,” which is a good thing to get for free as a UFA. But is it worth whatever cost he might want? Is it worth the possible headaches? Your team's mileage may vary.

As for adding Zaitsev, a good, big-bodied defenseman who's just 25 years old would be a solid add for a team like Toronto, because probably they're going to stink next year anyway. See what he can do on the small ice and maybe he turns into a viable asset. If not, you're rebuilding anyway, and he's probably just as good an addition as anyone you'd pick up in free agency to fill a temporary hole in the roster.

And you'll never guess what the deal is with Platt: He scored those 26 goals in 64 games on 230 shots. That's all 11.3 shooting percentage. Say, what was the name of that undersized North American who scored a ton of goals on a shooting percentage in Russia last season then signed with Nashville and lasted all of 16 games in the AHL before heading back to the KHL? Exactly. Caveat emptor and all that.

This Is So Huge, If True: Is It True?

On a B.S. detector scale of 1-5, with one being the most reasonable and 5 being the least:

Will [Player] [come from/go to] the KHL is a question that gets asked every summer. Not even Alex Ovechkin has been immune from such speculation. But the rate at which guys actually make the jump one way or the other is relatively minimal.

Were I a betting man, I'd say that, in order of likelihood, the moves most likely to happen are:

1. Zaitsev to Toronto:

2. Radulov to ???:

3. Datsyuk to KHL:

4. Platt to ???:

There's been plenty of smoke around the Zaitsev transaction for a while now, so it shouldn't be surprising to find fire there too. Radulov has been playing will-they-won't-they with the NHL basically from the second he went back to Russia, so that wouldn't be a shocker either.

Datsyuk to the KHL? Possible, but why now? We haven't been given much of a reason to believe that. And as for Geoff Platt, it's tough to understand why an NHL team would be interested in another KHL PDO case, but stranger things have certainly happened.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)

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