Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers: Puck Daddy’s NHL Playoff Preview

(The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us. The good news for NBC: There are no Canadian teams to bring down the ratings. The bad news for Sportsnet: There are no Canadian teams to bring up the ratings. Such is life. Who wins the Cup? Read our insightful and informative playoff previews!)

How’d They Get Here? 

The Pittsburgh Penguins began the season with enormous expectations, as everyone expected Phil Kessel to score, like, a billion goals skating with Sidney Crosby. He didn’t. And then Crosby stopped scoring. And then they were 27th in the NHL in scoring, which got coach Mike Johnston fired on Dec. 12 and AHL coach Mike Sullivan promoted to the big job.

Then they made some smart moves, like improving their team speed with players like Carl Hagelin and Trevor Daley. Sullivan, meanwhile, created a possession monster offensively. The Penguins went 33-16-5 under Sullivan, taking second in the Metro with 104 points. 

The New York Rangers followed up their conference finals loss to the Lightning with a middling regular season that saw their playoff seed up in the air during the final weekend. Usually one of the most defensively stout teams in the League, the Rangers fell off a possession cliff and were No. 15 in goals-against.

They acquired Eric Staal at the trade deadline. The less said about that the better.

The Rangers finished third in the Metro with 101 points.

Their Last Playoff Meeting

The Rangers defeated the Penguins in the conference quarterfinals, 4-1, last season as Pittsburgh discovered the coach they hired to turn around their playoff fortunes did not. As usual, Sidney Crosby was physically abused with few repercussions.

Schedule

Offense

After that terrible start offensively, the Penguins finished third in the NHL at 2.94 goals per game. Sidney Crosby started with 15 points in his first 23 games, and finished with 85 points in 80 games. Kris Letang had 67 points in 71 games. Kessel, despite all the inflated expectations, had 26 goals while Evgeni Malkin ended with 27 in 57 games. You know things are going well when Matt Cullen has 16 goals. 

Crosby has been skating with his longtime co-star Chris Kunitz (17 goals) and Patric Hornqvist (22 goals). Nick Bonino filled in for Malkin admirably between speedsters Hagelin and Kessel.

The Penguins finished second in score-adjusted Corsi (53 percent), after posting a 48.3 percent under Johnston.

Therein lies the problem: The Rangers are a below average possession team this year, at 48.2 percent. Their offense greatly relies on their ability to counterpunch after turnovers and spring their forwards for odd-man rushes. But will the Penguins give up the puck enough for that to thrive?

Mats Zuccarello would be top of the list for offensive threats, leading the Rangers in points (61) and assists (35). Derick Brassard led the team with 27 goals, skating mostly with the aforementioned Norwegian Hobbit Wizard.

Derek Stepan (53 points) anchors the top line with Chris Kreider (43 points) and Rick Nash, who had only 15 goals and 21 assists in 60 games this season – down significantly from last season’s averages.

Kevin Hayes (36 points) and J.T. Miller (43 points) have been offensive sparkplugs down the lineup, but the Rangers have only gotten three goals and three helpers in 20 games from Eric Staal. Yikes.

Keith Yandle has generated 47 points from the blueline, with Ryan McDonagh the only other defenseman with more than 30. The Rangers continue to get some surprising offensive spark from Kevin Klein with 26 points.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins

Defense 

The Penguins’ best defense in their offense, as the team still surrenders 28.5 shots per game – down slightly from their 30.4 under Johnston. The Rangers also struggle with shot suppression at 29.4 shots per game.

Which brings us to the goaltending.

Henrik Lundqvist posted 35 wins in 65 games, leading the NHL in shots faced and in saves. He posted a .920 save percentage and a 2.48 goals-against, with an even-strength save percentage of .934. He’s been great at times, but there’s something off about him this season, having been pulled multiple times.

It could be the blueline in front of him, as Dan Girardi was one of the worst possession defensemen in the conference, and the Rangers had middling seasons from Marc Staal and Dan Boyle. Ryan McDonagh remains their best defenseman, but his health is questionable to start the series.

The Rangers get some good depth work from Jesper Fast and Dominic Moore (55.3 percent on faceoffs) defensively, and Brassard won 50.2 percent of his draws.

Cullen (55.7) and Crosby (51.7) were both quite solid on faceoffs for the Penguins.

Gone are the days when the Penguins’ depth at forward was their greatest failing. Players like Conor Sheary, Beau Bennett and Eric Fehr grind out quality minutes.

On defense, Letang and Trevor Daley (22 points in 53 games) are puck-moving marvels, while Justin Schultz is playing over 14 minutes a night and is gaining that confidence back that was sucked out of him by the Edmonton vampires. Brian Dumoulin, Ben Lovejoy and Ian Cole round out the group, with Olli Maata on the mend.

Marc-Andre Fleury is working back from a concussion. He had 35 wins in 58 games, with a .921 save percentage and a 2.21 GAA. He had a .927 save percentage at 5 on 5. Jeff Zatkoff could be the backup for the postseason with rookie standout Matt Murray working back from injury.

ADVANTAGE: Penguins

Special Teams

The Penguins power play never got on track this season, finishing 16th in the NHL at 18.4 percent. That’s slightly below the Rangers, who clicked at an 18.6 percent rate. The Penguins were 10th in power-play opportunities (261), while the Rangers were 30th (226). Learn to dive more, fellas.

On the penalty kill, the Penguins were fifth in the NHL at 84.5 percent, with seven shorthanded goals. The Rangers were 26th in the NHL at 78.2 percent, as Lundqvist had a dismal .840 save percentage shorthanded. 

ADVANTAGE: Penguins

Coaching

Sullivan has the kind of tangible results that usually snags someone the Jack Adams. His impact on the team’s offense, puck possession and Sidney Crosby’s smile quotient can’t be denied. His only previous playoff coaching experience was a seven-game loss to Montreal in 2004.

This will be Vigneault’s 10th playoff appearance, and his eighth consecutive one. He’s been criticized this season for the Rangers’ passive play and his player usage (hi Tanner Glass), but this is far from his first rodeo.

ADVANTAGE: Rangers

Five Key Questions

1. Are we ever going to see Ryan McDonagh this series, and how screwed are the Rangers without him?

2. How does Evgeni Malkin fit back into a lineup that’s thrived offensively without him, being that the Penguins play a speed game and speed is not his forte?

3. Can Henrik Lundqvist steal this series, or is this just not the stellar season we’ve come to expect from him? 

4. Is Marc-Andre Fleury past his concussion worries, and if he’s not can Matt Murray work his way back from injury as an insurance policy?

5. Is Eric Staal going to do anything to warrant the bounty the Rangers gave up for him?  

Best Fantasy Options

Kris Letang, Penguins. He’s having one of his best offensive seasons, and with the Rangers’ penalty kill being what it is, the Pens’ power-play leader should thrive (3:58 TOI).

Derick Brassard, Rangers. Hopefully he’s not matched against Crosby’s line, because Brassard is a dependable postseason scorer with 16 points in 19 games last season.

Prediction

Penguins in five. Pittsburgh is as good as their second-half dominance indicates, and the Rangers have played like a team whose window if opportunity is sliding shut at a rapid rate. But even at 34 and in an average year for him, Lundqvist is a threat to steal a series. 

--

Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.

MORE FROM YAHOO HOCKEY