Evgeny Kuznetsov and rationalizing a Stanley Cup Playoff bust

The Washington Capitals failed to reach the Eastern Conference Final again. It was Alex Ovechkin’s eighth attempt at doing so, and the eighth time one of his teams fell short.

Luckily for every rational observer of the NHL, the “Blame Ovechkin” bandwagon has lost a wheel and fallen over a cliff. He did everything he could to lead this team to victory: on the ice, off the ice, on the scoresheet. That there are finally more stories being written to preemptively dismiss criticism of his efforts than actual critiques of his efforts hopefully means the death of that trope.

Their series with the Pittsburgh Penguins was extraordinarily tight. It was one goal that separated them in Game 6, and one goal that separated them in the series. The Capitals got the better of the 5-on-5 play overall, but they lost two of three overtime games, including the one on which the series pivoted: Game 4, as the Penguins missed Kris Letang and Olli Maatta but the Capitals couldn’t, well, capitalize.

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All of this is to say that one goal here or there and it’s a different series. As Justin Williams, who knows a thing or two about scoring a key playoff goal, said after Game 6: “You have to own big moments. We owned some of them. Just not enough of them. Obviously not the big one tonight.”

When it comes to big moments, the expectation was that a player like Evgeny Kuznetsov would have provided them. His goal in Game 7 against the New York Islanders last postseason promised as much. His 77-point season, leading all Capitals players, promised more.

Considering that, Kuznetsov was an epic disappointment in the 2015-16 playoffs: Two points in 12 games. A power-play goal against the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 3. A power-play assist against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 2. And nothing else.

There were games in which he disappeared, like Game 6 against the Flyers and Game 1 against the Penguins, when he didn’t hit the net with a shot. And there were games in which he was present but with nothing to show for it, like in Games 4 and 6 against the Penguins, when he had six shots on goal. 

But again: Your leading scorer had two points in the playoffs. Your leading scorer didn’t have a goal in nine straight games.

Normally, this might get a player filleted. Like, for example, when Alex Semin followed his 40-goal regular season in 2009-10 with no goals in that seven-game disaster against the Montreal Canadiens, losing to an eighth seed. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post called the Capitals a “regular season team” and suggested one remedy would be to “probably get rid of Semin, who is reluctant to go to the net, takes foolish penalties and squeezes his stick too tight under pressure with no goals in his last 14 playoff games.”

Now, you’d have to be a [expletive] idiot to suggest the same for Kuznetsov, who’s a brilliant young talent who had a bad playoff season. But it doesn’t change the fact it was a bad playoff season – or does it?

From Ian Oland of Russian Machine Never Breaks:

Evgeny Kuznetsov Was Actually Really Good

I get it. You love dashboard stats. Me too. We all love sick goals and fancy assists. Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team in regular season points. In the playoffs, not so much. He had two points in 12 games, the same amount as Karl Alzner. So clearly Kuzy was the reason for the Caps demise. 

Except he wasn’t. His underlying play, measured in shot attempts and scoring chances, was tremendous. According to Pat Holden, Kuznetsov’s offensive production actually increased from the regular season. It’s just that his line’s shooting percentage cratered.

So don’t blame Evgeny Kuznetsov. Don’t worry about Evgeny Kuznetsov (unless you’re worried that he’s going to feel bad because he probably will because he’s Evgeny Kuznetsov and he cares so much). Kuzy’s a great player and he is going to be even better next year. It’s not his first rodeo.

See, this is where the analytics movement runs into a brick wall trying to convert the naysayers: When your leading scorer has one assist in six-game a semifinal round series, and the argument is made that “his offensive production actually increased from the regular season.” When the third-best even strength player in points production in the NHL this season – 59 of his 77 points were generated there – doesn’t get one in 12 playoff games.

But, you know, dashboard stats …

Look, it’s not Kuznetsov’s fault the Capitals lost. But it’s foolish to think that had their leading scorer been able to create one or two more goals against Pittsburgh, it might have been a different series. And series outcome.

Criticism of him can be tempered by the fact the Penguins’ own big guns didn’t fire. Perhaps there was an injury. Perhaps coach Barry Trotz should have put him in more offensively advantageous spots during the postseason. Perhaps we’re just numb to the idea that a leading regular-season player for the Capitals doesn’t produce similar results in the playoffs. Perhaps likeability trumps honest assessment. 

It’s just interesting to think about how Ovechkin and Semin used to have their numbers put through the ringer, and this disappointment by Kuznetsov is ignored or explained away.

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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at [email protected] or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.

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